MIT Energy Initiative researchers mapped economic and environmental tradeoffs tied to producing and trading ammonia as a future energy carrier. They built the first harmonized global dataset covering 63 countries, six production technologies, and complete supply-chain emissions and cost profiles. This allows direct comparisons of lifecycle greenhouse gas impacts and production costs for gray, blue, and low-carbon ammonia pathways, tells MIT News.
Ammonia already flows around the world as fertilizer feedstock, and it’s dense, carbon-free at the point of use, and easier to transport than hydrogen. But current industrial production through the Haber-Bosch process generates heavy emissions. The new dataset fills a gap in fragmented research, enabling policymakers and industry to weigh the impacts of different technologies and trade routes on emissions and cost.
The study finds that shifting to ammonia made with carbon capture (blue ammonia) could slash global greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 71% compared to today’s typical processes but at a roughly 23% higher cost. Going further to ammonia made via electrolysis powered by renewables (green ammonia) could reduce emissions by nearly 99.7%, though costs rise about 46%. That gives stakeholders concrete numbers to work with.
Other production options vary by context. For example, auto-thermal reforming with carbon capture performs better than some conventional approaches on emissions and cost, and using nuclear power for electrolysis drives emissions near zero. Across countries, energy prices, grid mix, and financing conditions strongly influence outcomes. China and the Middle East appear especially competitive as future low-carbon ammonia producers.
The research anticipates ammonia trade growing by 2050 as nations such as Japan and South Korea incorporate it into energy planning. The dataset gives governments and companies a tool to model costs and emissions, compare trade corridors, and shape policy or investment decisions.