Recent U.S. moves to strip export-control exemptions from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel’s China units aren’t just red tape; they’re a wake-up call. As of December 31, these firms will need licences even to maintain current operations. No expansion. No upgrades. The message is blunt: the semiconductor cold war is heating up.
That’s both a setback and a nudge. For these global players, it means hitting the brakes. South China Morning Post reports that for China’s policymakers and home-grown firms, it’s a push to speed up. State-backed investment funds, such as the massive “Big Fund III,” are steering billions into semiconductor tooling, materials, fab infrastructure, and AI chip design. Amid these efforts, companies such as YMTC are building NAND production lines using Chinese-made tools, aiming for a 15% global market share by late 2026, even though yield and equipment limitations still stand in the way.
On the AI-chip front, Cambricon is gaining serious traction. It posted a 1-billion RMB profit in H1 2025 and is predicted to grow its market share from 3% to 11% by 2028, thanks to partnerships with ByteDance and government backing, though it still relies on SMIC’s 7 nm nodes. At the same time, China plans to triple its AI chip output by 2026, with new fabs centering around Huawei’s processors and boosting capacity beyond what SMIC alone can offer.
U.S. pressure is tightening, but that’s reinforcing China’s self-reliance strategy. It’s pouring capital into domestic chipmaking, from memory to AI, and growing its own ecosystem. There are gaps—efficiency, yield, software compatibility—but the ambition is clear: cut dependence, step up capabilities, and build a semiconductor industry on Chinese terms.