A recent investigation by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab suggests that the rise of generative AI is beginning to tilt the job market, especially for early-career software professionals, tells IEEE Spectrum. Using payroll data from ADP (a large U.S. payroll firm), the researchers tracked employment trends across age groups and occupations with varying exposure to AI. The results point to a clear pattern: since late 2022, employment among young workers (ages ~22–30) in AI-exposed roles has declined, while mid-career and senior roles have remained stable or even grown.
Software engineering emerged prominently among the affected fields. In roles where AI tools can replicate or assist core tasks, such as writing boilerplate code, debugging, or simple logic, entry-level professionals are hardest hit. Senior engineers still command roles that require deep domain knowledge, design intuition, and architectural judgment, i.e., areas where AI has yet to match human insight. The study also grouped computer occupations more broadly (including hardware engineers, web developers) and found a similar trend: younger employees in AI-vulnerable jobs saw employment drop by around 6%, while lower-AI-exposed roles saw modest growth.
The researchers further assessed whether AI is acting as automation (replacing tasks) or augmentation (complementing human effort). They used the Anthropic Economic Index to estimate how much AI is used in particular occupations. They observed that roles where AI augments work did not experience the same employment declines, suggesting that displacement is more likely in automatable tasks.
The authors caution that AI is not the sole driver: broader shifts in the tech industry, economic cycles, or company strategies may also play a role. But the consistent pattern across sectors suggests a meaningful AI effect. The study also flags that future work must expand beyond the United States to see how global labor markets respond.
AI is already beginning to reshape the early rung of tech careers. Not all jobs vanish, but the nature of entry-level work is evolving. For young professionals, adapting to hybrid roles, AI-driven workflows, or niche specializations may become essential.