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Entropy Is Really About Probability, Not Disorder

by | Jul 28, 2026

The physics of microstates explains why energy moves toward equilibrium and why the second law of thermodynamics works so reliably.
Source: Wired Staff; Getty Images.

 

Entropy is often described as disorder, but that explanation can be misleading. Wired.com contributor and physics professor Rhett Allain presents entropy instead as a statistical concept connecting the microscopic behavior of particles with the macroscopic properties we observe (full article available to subscribers).

At the microscopic level, a system can exist in many arrangements, called microstates. At the macroscopic level, those arrangements produce measurable states, or macrostates, such as pressure or temperature. Entropy reflects the number of microstates that correspond to a particular macrostate. The more microscopic arrangements that can produce a state, the higher its entropy and the greater its probability of occurring.

Allain illustrates the idea with dice. Three six-sided dice have 216 possible microstates. There is only one way to roll a total of 18, but 27 sequences produce a total of 10. A total of 10 therefore has higher entropy and is much more likely. Entropy does not force the system toward that result. Probability does.

The same reasoning explains heat transfer. Put a hot copper ball into cold water, and thermal energy normally moves from the copper to the water until both reach thermal equilibrium. In principle, energy could move in the opposite direction while still obeying conservation of energy. Such an outcome is possible but improbable.

Quantum mechanics strengthens the analogy because atoms can occupy discrete energy levels. Energy can therefore be distributed among particles in many possible configurations. Boltzmann’s entropy equation connects entropy mathematically to the number of available microstates.

For everyday objects containing enormous numbers of molecules, probability becomes overwhelmingly concentrated around high-entropy states. A drop of water alone contains about 1.7 sextillion molecules. This statistical dominance explains why heat reliably flows from hotter objects to cooler ones. The second law of thermodynamics, therefore, emerges from probability: high-entropy outcomes are not magically required, but overwhelmingly more likely.