A new study led by researchers at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute, in collaboration with several African universities, suggests electric vehicles may become economically competitive across many parts of Africa significantly sooner than most projections assume. The research, published in Nature Energy, finds that pairing battery electric vehicles with dedicated solar-powered off-grid charging systems could make e-mobility viable well before 2040, even in regions with weak or unreliable electrical grids.
The analysis covers 52 African countries and more than 2,000 locations, modelling scenarios in which dedicated solar installations and stationary batteries supply vehicle charging independent of the main grid. Because costs for solar panels and battery storage have fallen sharply in recent years and more affordable electric vehicles, particularly two- and three-wheelers, are entering the market, charging with off-grid solar systems often costs less than fueling conventional internal combustion vehicles. For a small car travelling about 30 miles per day, a compact solar charging setup could cover most running costs.
Lead author Bessie Noll and her team highlight that parts of Africa with relatively stable financing environments, such as Botswana and South Africa, stand to adopt EVs earlier. In contrast, countries with high borrowing costs may see slower uptake because financing, rather than technology or solar potential, is the biggest barrier to broader electric mobility.
The study also compared electric vehicles with synthetic fuel alternatives, finding synthetic fuel options significantly more expensive even under optimistic assumptions. This reinforces the cost advantage of electric mobility in transportation.
Although the research did not model public charging infrastructure expansion or import duties, it frames electric vehicles not as a distant possibility but as a practical choice in many African markets. If solar charging solutions and supportive financing models are paired with strategic policy and investment, e-mobility could reshape transportation across the continent well ahead of mid-century forecasts.