China enters 2026 under its 15th five-year plan with ambitious climate pledges: reach “carbon peaking” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060. Meeting those targets is proving difficult because fundamental energy and economic realities push against swift decarbonization. Researchers and policy analysts identify five core challenges that will shape the country’s green transition this year, tells The Conversation.
First, the power grid itself limits how clean energy gets used. Vast solar and wind farms in western provinces such as Tibet, Xinjiang, and Qinghai often generate more energy than the grid can handle at peak production. Operators respond by curtailing output, purposely throttling down wind and solar plants to prevent grid overload. That wasted clean power highlights a need for massive investment in transmission and storage infrastructure so electricity can flow to demand centers in the east.
Second, coal remains central to reliability. Beijing continues to add coal-fired capacity to avoid the blackouts experienced in earlier years, but that reliance undermines climate goals. Renewables still lack the storage and dispatchability to replace reliable coal power without risking shortages.
Third, overcapacity in green manufacturing, from solar panels to electric vehicles and batteries, is now a liability. Factories produce more than domestic demand can absorb, triggering price wars and squeezing profits. Local governments resist slowing growth because clean tech fuels jobs and revenue.
Fourth, that surplus output has triggered trade tensions abroad. Cheap Chinese clean tech has drawn scrutiny in Europe, and the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism could reduce demand for Chinese products by taxing carbon-intensive inputs.
Finally, executing green policy falls to local governments that lack resources. Fiscal pressures and career incentives tied to traditional growth metrics discourage aggressive decarbonization, which helps explain continued enthusiasm for coal projects.
China’s climate ambitions are real, but energy infrastructure, economic structure, trade pressures, and governance issues complicate progress in 2026 and beyond.