A new Stanford study maps out how California could plausibly eliminate most greenhouse emissions by 2045, but warns execution will demand speed, coordination, and breakthroughs. The researchers developed a model integrating emissions, energy demand, technology cost curves, and economic impacts, and simulated multiple pathways toward net-zero, tells Stanford Report.
The model suggests that about half of the state’s emissions cuts could come from technologies already in commercial use: electric vehicles, rooftop solar, heat pumps, battery storage, and converting organic waste into renewable gas. For another quarter of reductions, less mature but advancing technologies, such as zero-emission heavy trucks, industrial electrification, hydrogen processes, and carbon capture in industrial settings, must scale rapidly. The final segment relies on long-shot innovations: decarbonizing aviation, shipping, advanced refrigerants, and large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
To hit these targets, California will need to more than double its electricity generation capacity (from roughly 80 GW now) and expand grid storage by some 54 GW. The authors stress that new renewables, firm clean energy (such as gas plants retrofitted with carbon capture or nuclear), and advanced CDR will all play roles.
Technical potential isn’t the only barrier. The paper points to regulatory, logistical, and policy obstacles: slow permitting for new power plants, constraints on grid interconnections, diminishing federal incentives, supply chain bottlenecks, and resistance at local levels. The study authors argue that cost is less of a limiting factor than speed and political will.
The roadmap’s message is clear: California has the tools to aim for carbon-free, but missing the timeline or mismanaging deployment could derail the ambition. To reach 2045, the state must act decisively to align policy, investment, infrastructure, and innovation, all at once.